JamieWeinstein.com

Tomorrow is Super Tuesday and I believe, like most, that McCain is going to be the big winner on the Republican side. However, if he does not do as well as people expect all the pundits will try to provide an answer for why McCain failed to capitalize on his momentum coming out of Florida. But the answer may be something completely unexpected: his support for the Iraq Surge.

Last April, McCain gave a major speech at the Virginia Military Institute where he famously defended his support for President Bush’s Surge—some have actually called it the McCain Surge—and boldly declared that he would “rather lose a campaign than a war.”

At the time, many thought McCain’s campaign would rise and fall on the success of the Surge. Since most people thought the Surge was likely to fail, they viewed McCain as a falling star. And fall he did. As late as December 10th McCain's support stood at just 7% nationally according to a CBS/NY Times poll, placing him behind Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee, and Mitt Romney.

But as the media was forced to recognize the overwhelming success of the Surge, McCain’s fortunes began to rise. He won New Hampshire and South Carolina and then Florida. As voters go to the polls tomorrow, McCain is viewed as the frontrunner.

But something strange may be happening. Something unexpected. As result of the astounding success of the Surge in Iraq, Iraq has been relegated to the back pages of America’s newspapers. With foreign policy off the front pages, the economy has taken center stage. This greatly advantages McCain’s chief rival—Mitt Romney. When people are talking about foreign affairs, McCain benefits do to his impressive foreign policy experience. When the economy is emphasized, one must suspect that Romney’s credentials as a successful businessman give him the edge.

If McCain performs worse than is expected tomorrow, it may be the result of a cruel twist of fate. The Iraq Surge which McCain defiantly and boldly championed may in the end sink him after all—not because of its failure, but instead because of its tremendous success.

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As I said at the start, I still expect McCain to do well tomorrow, though there is evidence that Romney is closing strong. I think if Super Tuesday occurred a month from now, this effect would be more pronounced. But if something does go wrong for McCain tomorrow, I think this is as good an explanation as any to what went wrong for McCain.

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